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Argentina & the Falklands - of Which One is Forever British

Updated: Nov 3, 2023

Argentina & the Falklands - of Which One is Forever British


(Note: Aggression against the Falkland Islands, South Sandwich Islands and South Georgia does not warrant a NATO Article V or VI as they are not located in the Northern Hemisphere)

Disclaimer: Lion Research Co holds no liabilities. This is not investment advice. We condemn discrimination.


The Age of Exploration, a brief history :


The collection of Islands which make up the Falklands are 380 nautical miles from the eastern coast of Argentina. The Territory of South Georgia lies about 750 nautical miles East of the Falklands. The first person to have recorded a landing on the Falklands was English Captain John Strong who visited in 1690. However, the first sighting was by fellow English Captain John Davis in 1592. There have never been an native inhabitants or ethnic groups. This is key. The first permanent garrison was by the British in 1765 . Since then there have been a number of garrisons by the British, French, and Spanish. All left in 1811 however British legal claims persisted. Argentina landed a garrison in 1832 they were then evicted, by the British, in 1833. Then from there the civilian population started. These were settlers from the UK who travelled with authorisation. Stanley became the capital in 1845. In WW1 the Royal Navy won the 1914 Battle of the Falklands island against Germany. This was a small naval battle that boosted war morale. Falklanders served overseas in WWI & II. Bar these brief periods there has been peace and stability on the islands. However, Argentina illegally invaded in 1982 and occupied the islands of Falklands, South Georgia & South Sandwich Islands. The whole war lasted from 2 April until 14 June. The 14th of June is celebrated every year as Liberation Day. We want that to remain. The well known Captain James Cook was the first to land in South Georgia. Again, no ethnic or indigenous people lived there. James Cook also discovered most of the South Sandwich islands. Russian Empire Admiral Bellingshausen (born in modern day Estonia into a German heritage family) discovered the other South Sandwich islands. Again no indigenous population in all islands. Argentina has no reason to claim them.


The UK was extremely restrained with Argentina in the past. A strategic mistake looking back. In November 1976, Argentine troops landed on Thule, one of the South Sandwich Islands. They set up a military garrison, a helipad & raised the Argentine flag. This is Casus belli (An Act of War). The UK launched Op. Journeyman, a task force was sent, however there were strict rules of engagement. No shots were fired and the garrison remained. Whitehall preferred diplomacy. The garrison surrendered in 1982 during Op. Keyhole (19/20th June). The UK should not be so lenient again. Giving concessions only leads to war. Allowing Thule to be occupied meant the entirety of the Falklands were invaded. Full scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th of February 2022 was due to the concession of Crimea & parts of Donbas. Giving some land will mean they think they can take it all. Threats of national security must be taken seriously. British soil is British land regardless.


Tensions have always remained since 1982. The UK and Argentina resumed diplomatic relations in 1989. Even after defeat Argentina still claims the territory as their own under the name ‘Las Malvinas’. There was a cooperation deal formed in 2016 however Argentina broke from this in 2023. Buenos Aires as members of the UN would know the concept of self-determination. The current islanders or Kelpers are descendants of those original inhabitants. Currently there are slightly over 3700 Falklands residents. In 2013, there was a vote and 99.8% of people supported the current political status of ‘British Overseas Territory (BOT)‘. Three individuals dissented, this is their legal right. They may have wanted independence or Argentine ownership; this is unknown. You may think this number seems like a kangaroo referendum, however there was an official independent international observer mission. Led by Brad Smith (US) with other representatives from New Zealand, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Mexico, and Canada. These are nations friendly with Argentina. They deemed it free and fair following all standard protocols. The 2009 constitution gave them more autonomy and there is a 11 seat democratic Legislative Assembly. South Georgia, has no permanent civilian population; mainly there is a small collection of scientists under British Antarctic Survey. Yet politicians in Buenos Aires still claim the islands. Current Vice President Cristinia Kirchner uses the Falklands often in her speeches and campaigns. This is purely to gather votes and support. Strong nationalism will always be a political vote base anywhere you go. Every year there are parades and flag burner but this will never damper the British resolve for the self-determination of the islanders.


The EU recently intentionally misnamed the Falklands as ‘Las Malvinas’. This is counter-productive on many levels. The EU is finding itself in its biggest ever security crisis. The only barrier between war and the EU is Ukraine. The UK is one of the leaders in protecting the EU. The UK gives major military and financial support to Ukraine to defend against Russian imperialism. UK forces are also located in the EU countries of Estonia (Battlegroup under the enhanced Forward Presence, eFP) and Poland (currently Royal Dragoon Guards). If we go historically then UK support for EU countries’ independence and sovereignty is massive. At times the EU forgets this. The EU also prides itself on freedom, rule of law and international law. Hence the EU should respect the self-determination of Falklanders.


155 British troops sacrificed their lives for the defence of a collection of islands most had never heard off before. We must remember this. There was confusion amongst soldiers as to where the islands were situated. Some even assumed Scotland.


649 Argentine troops lost their lives due to political greed. We do not want this unfortunate loss of life to happen again. Lion Research Co has nothing against the country in general, the culture or its people. Politicians & imperialist greed is where the issue lies.


The cemeteries of the respective fallen are maintained with equal respect. Argentine families of the fallen have visited the islands.


1982:


There are some parallels between 1982 and now.


Argentina in 1982 was ruled by an authoritarian junta. A military dictatorship which was installed by the 1976 coup. Starting in 1974 there was a bloody crackdown against opposition, mainly socialists, Peronists, communists and students. This led to the dreadful the murder & disappearance of between 20-30k people. This war had foreign support including from the US. The true death toll is unknown. It was an unpopular role. This was one reason for the invasion. It provided a domestic diversion. A successful invasion would drive up nationalism and reduce criticism of the government. State controlled newspapers and media could report on these ‘positives’. Those who still criticised the government still generally supported the war. From 2011-2013 there were large scale anti-government protests against the Kremlin for a multitude of reasons. This was one of the reasons for illegally annexing Crimea.


Obviously now Argentina is a democracy however current political approval polls are low. From 2020-2021 there were large scale protests against a number of issues. Including but not limited to poor handling of Covid, corruption, crime, inequality and costs.


In 2022 Argentina’s Corruption Perception Index was 38/100. Higher the score means less corruption. Most allegations stem from nepotism, lack of transparency, embezzlement and bribes. The most famous case recently is regarding current Vice President Kirchner. A number of allegations have been thrown at her. On the 6th December 2022 she was found guilty of ‘fraudulent administration’. Protection, from the 6 years in prison, is however provided as she is VP. In the UK any MP convicted and sentenced to more than 1 year or more is automatically recalled. Argentine anti-corruption efforts are lacking. Most ignore corruption by right wing individuals. Results by Statista show a sizable deduction for support of democracy. In 2013 it was 73% whilst in 2021 dropped to 55%.


There was an assassination plot against the Vice President which failed as the gunman’s pistol failed to go off. Reportedly it was because he didn’t clock it. Divine Intervention I would say. It illustrates poor security and intelligence operations. Lion Research Co’s Defence Department identified many flaws with the personal security team. Inadequate crowd control, no crowd screening, slow response by security, and poor route planning. The time between threat identified and threat neutralised fell below expectations.


Serious crime is positively decreasing; especially in major cities such as Buenos Aires. Argentina is relatively safe. However, the public is still concerned about their security. When polled, crime is one of the top issues on Argentine’s minds. Theft is one of the most common crimes, the economic inequality is at play here. Numerous Chinese shopkeepers in the capital carry a collection of pistols and rifles to prevent looting.


The person leading the election predictions so far is right-wing Javier Milei. Alongside Sergio Massa he is the two contenders for the 19th November run off elections. He is highly unconventional. A National Deputy & economist from the Libertarian Party (of which he is the current leader). He is demanding change and is extremely furious with the inflation. One of his plans is to dollarise the economy. Somewhat unrealistic. Argentina had pesos, then they pegged them to the dollar, then this was removed. The USA will not be pleased with Argentina swaying into China. Officially, Argentina does not have to get permission from the USA to make dollars legal tender. However, physical supply of dollars comes from the US & Washington has control over this. However, with some countries using the dollar less due to US sanctions on Russia then the US will likely welcome the move even if Buenos Aires is going towards Beijing’s hands. Divorcing from the pesos is unliked by some as they will lose some independence, control & a loss of heritage. When Argentina used to peg pesos to the dollar there was a period known as the Corraltio in late 2001. The pesos was pegged to the dollar at 1 for 1. However, like today, the economy was in a poor state and people feared devaluation (changing the exchange rate). So to prevent a run on the banks, withdrawing money was capped heavily. This resulted in a few days of deadly riots.


There will be more reliance on the US if the dollar becomes legal tender. This will cull inflation and bring back price stability. Other South/Central American countries use the dollar either officially such as El Salvador or unofficially such as Venezuela. More & more places in Argentina are unofficially accepting dollars especially amongst independent low order shops. After the primaries the pesos plunged more. If he is announced president it will plunge even more as people will sell & transfer to dollars quickly. It will be questionable to think what the exchange rate will be during dollarisation.


China will be disliking the idea of Argentina using dollars. It is plausible, with assistance from the Belts & Road Initiative & BRICS, that a common South American currency is created. This would reduce dependence on America & allow for countries to travel deeper into the China camp. Yes, there are differences & tensions between the South American countries however on the most part they have relatively good relations with China & would support a collective currency. Likely a notable exception will be Chile. A collective BRICS currency would be way too far of a stretch. The issue with collective countries is that you need each economy to be relatively stable & with an adequate projection. This works with the EU Euro however BRICS currency across continents will be too difficult. Moreover, the Euro zone has strict criteria for admission. Collective South American currency would help cross border trade & co-operation hence reducing tensions.


Other policies of this fourth runner include less taxes, a reduced balanced budget, streamlining government agencies and removing some positions. This was illustrated via walking down a street in La Plata with a chainsaw. The defence budget will likely be reduced further as a result. Further compounding issues which will be discussed later.


Policies such as anti-abortion laws & less gun laws are to gather more support amongst the conservatives. Less gun control is a popular view amongst the leading candidates in this election. He is a right wing ‘anti-communist’ politician. So, on paper, he would have a poor relationship with the CCP. However, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is similar, had a good relationship with China. It will be highly surprising if relations sour drastically.


His running mate Mrs Villarruel signed the anti-communist Madrid Charter at the Madrid Forum. Which hosts international conservative meetings amongst international political parties. They were critical of Lula in the 2022 Brazil elections. If she is the Vice President it may impact relations with Lula but likely this will be brushed over.


Relations between Argentina & Brazil are growing currently especially in the defence field. There was a tender for a new Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC). Which is definitely needed. In essence an APC is a battletaxi. Transport infantry squads from A to B under moderate cover (small arms & nearby mortar/artillery shells however not too close). Troops dismount & the APCs provide some fire support normally from a distance. Once objectives are taken the APCs will evacuate the wounded & bring in reinforcements.

The main APC, in service, is the classic M113 that is supported by the VCTP Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV). A derivative of the TAM medium tank based on the German Marder 1. Neither are bad, however neither are great. For both the armour is adequate. Up to heavy machine gun (HMG) rounds frontally & artillery shrapnel (depending on range). However, both need better mine resistance, lack thermals, and modularity. M113 only has a ring turret for a HMG and the VCTP an unstabilised 20mm so firing on the more is difficult, no active protection systems (APS), no anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) & no organic drones.


Three countries went into the tender. The US Stryker, Brazilian VBTP-MR ‘Guarani’ & the Chinese VN-1 (export variant of the Type-08 APC). The Brazilian vehicle won. South American vehicles in the Argentine Army are very uncommon. The Argentine Armed Forces is heavily reliant on America & Europe (especially France & Germany). This is likely the first of many shifts in defence suppliers.


The VBTP-MR order is 156 vehicles. Far enough to replace the M113 & TAM VCTP. The M113 will definitely remain in service for a while. If Buenos Aires thought strategically the free up vehicles would be sent to Ukraine then in return they could do a deal with the US at a very good rate. There is an IFV (infantry fighting vehicle) variant of the VBTP-MR, called the VBCI-MR, with an Israeli 30mm turret obviously more expensive. These are designed to directly fight along the infantry. Providing accurate fire against light vehicles, enemy infantry and fortifications. There is a lack of an organic anti-armour capability. No ATGMs. However, there are no Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks (MBT) in the Falklands currently. No Chieftains MBTs served in the 1982 war. If there is a future conflict it is highly unlikely any Challenger Squadrons will deploy.


Pivots are also happening in the Air Force. Argentina is looking into buying Indian Tejas. However, quite rightly, the UK has an arms embargo against Argentina. This prevents British parts being used in military vehicles destined for Argentina. The KA-50 jet deal from ROK fell through due to this. The most glaring of all is the Martin Baker ejection seat. Since 1946 Martin-Baker has been a world renowned name in ejection seats. This leaves only a few countries available. Russia has for many years been rumoured to have offered the sale of Mig-29s & Mig-35. Free of British parts; at least on paper. Buenos Aires has denied this offer ever took place. Most likely it did. In 2010 Buenos Aires ordered 2 x Russian Mi-17E for Antarctica operations. China has offered the JF-17. The JF-17 replaced the Mirage III/V in Pakistan. Argentina has both however lack of spare parts & suitable life span of the bodies means they cannot fly. In 2023 the defence minister officially announced the retirement of the Super Etendard due to spare parts. The JF-17 seems reasonable, especially price wise, Chinese equipment is cheaper than western counterparts. In UN missions in Haiti Argentina used Chinese APCs. China does donate military equipment at times especially to African countries. Will not be surprising if this form of diplomacy increases regarding South America. However, recently things have changed a lot. Argentina has brought 4 retired P-3 Orion patrol aircraft from Norway. This has been approved by the US. The deal is worth $67m. Includes 3 x P-3C able to track surface & submerged targets, 1 x P-3N for SAR. Norway replaced these aircraft with the modern, yet again American, P-8 Poseidon. Regarding fast jets, Argentina has sourced 24 x F-16s from Denmark. The US has approved these. Both of these will upset the UK. The US in the past has unofficially taken part in the UK’s embargo against Argentina in terms of modern military equipment. Weighing up annoying the UK and the sight of Chinese jets south of their border White House chose the latter. This deal is worth circa $40m which includes aviation support. With Argentina still joining BRICS it shows these arms deals are just not enough to stop them from swaying into the China camp.


Argentina has two Mi-17Es for Antarctic exploration, due to parts sanctions, they cannot be maintained. Buenos Aires wants rid of them. A reasonable & predictable choice is decommissioned CH-46s from the US currently in storage. If again Buenos Aires thought tactically send the Mi-17Es to Ukraine and CH-46s will be sent the other way for a low price (or free) under Excess Defence Articles (EDA).


Before the Falklands war the UK would sell military weapons to Argentina. British Type 42 destroyers were used against the British task force.


The other reason for the 1982 invasion was the economy. It was very poor with the junta being one of the reasons. Unemployment was high, Inflation was over 600%, paired with negative GDP growth. There were regular protests and the threat of crippling strikes was real.


In 2023, the economy is not doing well either. Yearly inflation is over 100%. Argentina is in the top 33% globally for wealth inequality. New laws had to be brought in as foreign football fans were burning money to taunt locals. The impacts of Covid and recent financial problems due to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine do not help such figures.

Especially the cost of living costs. In February 2023 the central bank brought in a new 2k Peso bill. The previous highest denomination was 1,000 Peso. The Peso used to be pegged to the USD but this was removed in 2002. This was poor judgement and issues have compounded since then.


During, Covid extra money was printed to provide aid. Unfortunately, printing extra money is not an infinite money glitch any economics student can tell you about that. It devalues said economy by having an overcirculation. Black markets exchange deals are common. Routing these out is difficult. Ukraine had an issue with this when a full scale invasion started. What they did was to devalue the hryvnia to be in line with the black market price.


However, Buenos Aires will not want to devalue the Peso even more. High foreign debts adds to this issue. In March 2023 it was 275.1 billion USD relative to a GDP of 632.77 billion. The IMF agreed a 57 billion USD relief package to attempt to help out the situation. This did not. A default in 2020 was a pivotal moment. Countries are given a credit rating by three main companies, S&P, Fitch & Moody’s. Any default or risk of default results in a drop. When a drop occurs it makes it harder and more expensive for a country to borrow money. There are also more conditions. Additionally, capital investment in said country’s businesses and industry decreases as the perceived risk is higher. In March 2023, Fitch decreased Argentina from CCC- to the lower grade of C.


Argentina with most of its trade partners operates a trade deficit. The main exports are agricultural products. Top three being corn, soybean and wheat. Climate change is impacting export levels. Precipitation is more varied and droughts are more common. These are all detrimental to farming, This will require more human intervention to remedy such as irrigation. As these unfortunately worsen, money will not be given to the defence budget.


Once the news of the island's occupation reached the mainland there was mass jubilation. Protests turned into parades. The ‘dirty war’ and socio-economic problems were pushed to one side. The same will happen today. If war against the Falklands is declared there will be genuine public support and issues will be forgotten. A poll in 2021 found that 80% of respondents want to ‘reclaim’ the islands. Of course polls are subjective and can be manipulated. Support is generally higher in older generations especially in those who can remember the events. Time will tell to see the opinions of younger generations. Lion Research Co estimates a reduction with a greater worry for pressing domestic issues.


However, once the UK liberated the Falklands, South Sandwich Islands and South Georgia there was a sudden change. Argentine propaganda had full control of the news. They were told they were being victorious and were repelling the British. The tabloid phrase ‘Estamos Ganando’ or ‘We are winning’ is infamous. So a full surrender was totally unexpected, it was a great shock. Jubilation turned into anger and sadness. Riots commenced. The military dictatorship soon fell and democracy was restored in Argentina. With that the dirty war of oppression was over. The fall of the dictatorship makes British troops feel like they positively impacted Argentina and its people. Argentine soil was not hit during the 1982 war.


Whoever is in charge, currently President Alberto Fernandez (soon to be changed), they must know invading the Falklands carries great risk.


Demand for electricity & energy in Argentina is growing. Domestic production is growing especially in the Vaca Muerta region. Argentina does import some energy however it is not a major chunk (less than 10%). Buenos Aires has pledged for net zero by 2050. This is questionable on numerous fronts. There are major targets for renewables in 2025 & 2030. Argentina is a major fuel exporter. Moving the economy away from agriculture and into energy has already started. This is okay as long as the oil stays pumping. Even if the Royal Navy blockades Argentine ports (highly unlikely, never happened in 1982) Argentina can just export it through neighbours for a fee. This is similar to the Beira Patrol. A highly costly Royal Navy operation to block oil shipments to Rhodesia via Biera port in Mozambique. It failed since Rhodesia could just ship oil through other African ports. Rhodesia is now known as Zimbabwe. Having friendly neighbours to help circumvent blockades & sanctions is one of the key reasons China started the BRI.


Where is the money going?


The Argentine defence budget is very crazy. An obscene amount of money goes into soldier pay. It is above 70%. For most armies it is around 30%. Argentinian military pay is very good. This helps with morale & draws quality skilled recruits. Other militaries such as Taiwan have an issue with recruits due to low pay in relation to the high salaries offered in Taiwan. Since the Argentine defence budget is so small to start with, there is not enough cash to buy & maintain large numbers of modern defence equipment. This is why the Stryker APC was not selected. It simply costs too much. The Argentine military is well suited to low intensity & domestic operations. Not a full scale conflict. During 1982 & the period of the military dictatorship the defence budget was much higher. Moreover, conscription was used which meant lower pay. Now the Argentine Armed Forces is fully volunteer which aids with morale.


Unconventional?


Lion Research Co’s first report on Taiwan (Defending the Rebel Kingdom) focuses heavily on unorthodox approaches. PMCs, Cyber, misinformation, energy, water, and many more domains. However, Argentina is different. China holds vastly more political, financial, hard & soft power than Taiwan. This means they are able to develop, risk and afford these tactics. Argentina is not in any position to take action against the UK.


Argentina does not have a highly sophisticated cyber-offensive or defensive network. However, Buenos Aires is developing this field. In 2022, US troops from SOUTHCOM held a 3 days cyber security exchange in Argentina. Moreover, Argentina played a large role in cyber operation during the PANAMAX 2022 military exercises. However, the UK will always be well ahead. Argentina has never suffered any national scale cyber attacks. Since 2013, Ukraine has been cyber attacked by Russia targeting a number of key infrastructure such as energy. The west including the UK has been helping to counter this. It provides key experience. In recent months & years the Argentine police & health ministry alongside the Buenos Aires legislature has been hacked. This throws into question preparedness. It is not just the government agencies that need to be ready but also civilian companies especially those in charge of key industries such as banking, energy & transport. It is highly unlikely the UK will launch a cyber war against Argentina due to potential public and international response. However, it would be hypothetically possible and highly damaging.

Misinformation on social media as a prelude would occur however it is more likely to be a collection of Argentine patriots on X (formerly Twitter) than a coordinated conspiracy. The small budget of the Argentine Armed Forces just does not allow for certain capabilities. Buenos Aires could never have afforded P-3s or F-16s at full price. Due to the UK’s support for Ukraine & Taiwan it is plausible that Russia & China respectively would offer support in this field. Cyber warfare can be hard to attribute to a country. The EU rated X has the number 1 place for Russian information.



Response & Sanctions:


It must be noted that sanctions do not stop a conflict or generally have an immediate impact. Normally they take a while to take hold. Sanctions on Russia are having a tangible impact however the economy will not collapse in the near future. Mainly, due to the Kremlin’s ability to shake down large corporations such as Gazprom in windfall taxes and nationalise foreign businesses. However, there have been numerous issues with the defence industry and raising funds for war. The ruble is falling continuously. Soldiers and other government workers are regularly underpaid severely. Bonuses and KIA/WIA compensation is becoming increasingly rarer.


In recent years, the UK & Argentina have been increasing trade. Regarding the UK both imports & exports are increasing. There is currently a trade deficit and has been for some time. Top goods imported are animals, beverages, crude oil, and crops. Top exported are metals, medication, power generators, refined oil & chemicals. Numerous UK professional services are exported to Argentina. The UK has cut numerous services to Russia such as marketing, engineering, IT, legal & architectural. Argentina would not want this to happen to them.


The international response is hard to gauge. An UN Security Council meeting will be held and a security council resolution will probably not pass. In 1982 a Security Council Resolution (502) did pass. Panama voted against. China (PRC), Poland (SSR), Spain and USSR abstained. A general assembly resolution will likely pass however the conflict would be over before one could be approved. China and Russia, as fellow BRICS members, will likely vote against the UK. Russia especially due to very strong UK support for Ukraine. Argentina joining BRICS is not a surprising move.


On a regional scale. The Union of South American Nations (USAN) will pass a resolution supporting Argentina. Not all countries are a part of the USAN , even Argentina currently. Many nations left in 2018 to protest Venezuelan actions. Currently only 5 permanent members however Brazil & Argentina announced joint plans in 2023 to rejoin. This can signal a change in their opinions regarding the Venezuelan dictatorship.


The Organisation of American States (OAS) in 1982 did pass a resolution supporting Argentina. Some, such as the US, abstained in the voting process. Since 1982 two more countries have joined Saint Kitts and Nevis & Guyana. There are 35 members. The ability for them to pass a resolution will depend on how the countries vote. If they vote against any Anti-UK resolution or if they only abstain.


Resolutions passed by these intergovernmental organisations are worthless if no action follows them up.


When Russia launched their full scale invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022 they were suspended/expelled from groups such as the Council of Europe. This will not happen to Argentina at all regarding groups such as SELA, ALADI, Mercosul. There is genuine South American support for Argentina in the Falklands cause.


The UK will likely demand the removal of Argentina as a US Major non-NATO ally (MNNA). It is hard to justify such membership if an invasion occurs. Bill Clinton made Argentina a MNNA in 1998. Other desires the UK may have such as removing Argentina from SWIFT will not occur. Diplomatic ties will be cut again. Argentina knows this will happen so is joining BRICS etc to counteract any negative western reaction. Being so fixated on the Falklands is a major issue for Buenos Aires.


The Belts & Road Initiative (BRI) was a large part of our first Taiwan report (Defending the Rebel Kingdom). The BRI has numerous commercial yet military & political implications. Argentine deals with BRI are deepening. They cover a range of domains such as energy, infrastructure & finance. Beijing supports Argentina regarding the Falklands. Whitehall is understanding, albeit slowly, the threat China poses to the UK & its interests. As of writing British Police have arrested a British national who worked in Parliament on espionage charges for China. China also funds a number of pressure & lobbying groups. Chinese influence and boldness is growing. The CCP does not play nicely. The Falklands democratically voted to be British in 2013.


Chinese investment is growing in Argentina. Investment is especially large in the mining sector. China wants access to more natural resources such as lithium. Lithium is crucial in lithium-ion batteries. China is trying to grow massively in the EV market with their main company being BYD Auto. BYD Auto is larger than Tesla & is the world’s largest EV producer. Argentina, Bolivia, & Chile form the ‘Lithium Triangle’. Collectively they control around ⅔ of the global supply. Ganfeng Lithium has 4 major projects in the country. Other companies include Tibet Summit resources & Tsingshan Holding Group.


China has the world’s largest foreign fishing fleet. In the last decade they have been venturing into Argentina’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) & taking fish without permits. This has resulted in clashes with the coast guard with shots fired. This will likely be brushed over. Due to climate change impacting the weather phenomenon El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two constituent parts El Nino & La Nina are having increasingly worse effects on Argentina including the fishing sector.


Other South American countries have strong relations with China, especially fellow BRICS member Brazil. However, the Chinese presence in Argentina far exceeds its fellow neighbours. Argentina is hoping that surrendering its exclusive sovereignty over industries & resources will grant them preferred political, financial, & military support. With increasing domestic problems only time will tell what the average citizen thinks of that.


In Northern Patagonia there is a space station (Espacio Lejano Station) controlled by China. Beijing states they will use the 50-year agreement for purely civilian activities. With no direct Argentina oversight this cannot and should not be trusted. The station can reasonably be used for intelligence purposes especially with the Falklands. Washington & the Argentine opposition have expressed concern. In 1982 there are rumours the USSR provided covert assistance to the junta. Reasonable to believe Beijing will follow suit.


The Commonwealth will support the UK as they did in 1982. Strong relations remain with these countries through political, economic, societal and military means. Foreign Office, in 2024/25 will give £8.3b in foreign aid. This is high however still a drop compared to previous years. A lot of this aid goes to Commonwealth nations. Cordial relations remain on political levels even if the UK used to rule said countries. Russia, invades or threatens to invade former Soviet or Russian Empire territories however the UK does not. The UK provides hurricane assistance every year for the Caribbean. A River-class patrol boat is always ready.


AUKUS was signed in 2021 between Australia, UK, USA. Boosting military cooperation especially in the realm of submarines. France, to put it mildly, was very annoyed. New Zealand , in the Falklands war, sent frigates to the Gulf to free up RN vessels. This helped the war effort. The UK has brought numerous batches of Pakistani ammo for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The British Army, especially Gurkhas, have started to do more training exercises with the Indian Army. India is starting to pivot away from Russia. Russia, the traditional arms seller to India, is being replaced. France is becoming increasingly prominent. The UK will unlikely become a prime defence seller to India due to its dealing with Pakistan such as selling SeaCeptor (CAMM) missiles for their Babur-class Corvettes. India will become a superpower. They should join the G7 to recreate the original G8 if the pivoting continues.


The UK has strong relations with many South American countries. During 1982 Chile gave vital support & assistance. Whilst other South American countries did support Argentina or offered assistance. Some assistance offers such as Venezuelan paratroopers were more token gestures than actual offers. Peru was the only South American country to transfer military equipment.


Some current South American governments would offer assistance. Especially BRICS member Brazil under Lula. He has a soft dislike for the west. Lula refused to join in sanctions against imperialist Russia. Moreover, he refused Ukraine’s request to buy 450 Armoured medical evacuation vehicles (VBTP-MR Guarani). Sabotaging your own defence industry and international reputation to appease Russia is a highly questionable move. In general South America has refused to deliver military aid to Ukraine. Western countries such as the USA, UK, Netherlands, Luxembourg etc pay good money to buy military equipment from 3rd countries ,such as Jordan, to give to Ukraine.


Recent UK arms sales to South America:


The biggest three markets for UK weapons are the Middle East, North America & Europe. South/Latin America is not at the top of the list but many deals still happen.


Brazil:

  • Helicopter Carrier/Amphibious warfare vessel HMS Ocean (now NAM Atlantico)

  • Upgraded River-Class OPV (known as Amazon-class)

  • CAMM missiles for new Tamandare class frigates

Chile:

  • CAMM missiles to replace SeaWolf on Type 23 Frigates

Uruguay:

  • Land Rover 110 Utility Vehicles

HMS Montrose & Monmouth. Both decommissioned Type 23 ASW frigates are up for sale. Chile, which already has 3, would be a good sell. The remaining Sandown minehunters could also be sold to South America. However, they are popular on the market. In the longer term Hunt class mine countermeasure ships will be mostly decommissioned by the end of the decade. Idea is to replace them with mother ships equipped with autonomous equipment. However, mine warfare vessels do have the useful role of doubling as ad hoc off-shore patrol vessels.

Military equipment transfers are commonplace in diplomacy. Taiwan does it often to try to keep the few countries that still officially recognise them on their side. The CCP ‘One China policy’ means that countries who recognise Taiwan cannot recognise PRC. Due to the stronger political & economic power of the PRC only 13 officially recognise the ROC.

The world is much more interdependent on the UK economy than with Argentina. So countries will benefit from closer relations with the UK. British soft and hard power is also vastly superior to that of Argentina. UK may transfer soon to be decommissioned vehicles to South America such as the Land Rover Fleet & Warriors. Peru has been looking for a while for cost effective methods to replace antiquated Soviet equipment and Cold War American gear.

Libya, ruled by dictator Gaddafi, sent a plane of military supplies to Argentina via Brazil in 1982. The Foreign Office protested to Brazil and these flights stopped. Onboard were small arms including the Soviet MANPAD Strela-2 (NATO reporting name SA-7 Grail’. None evidence suggests any were fired. The Modern day equivalent would be Wagner Group sending arms to Argentina. Many foreign groups do want to see British losses. However, it is extremely unlikely a democratic Argentina would accept arms from such banned groups as the Junta did with Libya. Wagner is a designated terrorist group on the UK government list. Covertly smuggled arms from South American countries is likely. The future of Wagner is unknown. They provide a service to Russia helping increase their presence in the region and topple governments in their favour. However, it is likely in the long term they will be replaced.

War.

Short answer: No (currently)


Long Answer:


The last war was undeclared for legal reasons, and lasted for 10 weeks. Nowadays countries do not legally declare war as this causes many implications. Any new war, which is highly unlikely, will be much shorter. Currently, Argentina is not in a position to land formations on the beaches. Not much has changed from 1982 in terms of raw army equipment however it had for the UK.


In 1982 Falklands, South Sandwich islands & South Georgia were invaded. Any future hypothetical conflict would solely only see the Falklands. There are simply not enough naval vessels to invade other places as well. Falklands is the closest to the main land & the key objective.


Any build up of invasion will be extremely hard to hide. Satellite imagery will pick up troop & ship formations. Ukraine uses the ‘People’s Satellite', a crowd funded ICEYE satellite led by Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation. On paper it's a Search & Rescue satellite. This satellite has located 1,000s of targets & has been used to help strike Crimea. The UK has access to better & more numerous satellites.


During the 1982 Falklands war, the UK had to borrow US satellite communication networks to help coordinate the submarine fleet. Nowadays the UK has access to the Skynet communication systems. This has coverage over the Americas.


On the basis the west was able to correctly estimate when and where Russia would launch a full scale invasion. Predicting key events such as the landing at Antonov airport. Then the UK will be able to pick indicators such as increased signal activity that will preludes any action. Plausible there will also be leaky OPSEC. Any invasion will not come as a surprise.


When Whitehall gets word of such operations in the planning there will be immediate action. A strong show of force is a must. Defending the Falklands does have support across different political parties. So the initial response will likely be similar between governments.


Deployment of a Task Force and rapid reaction troops will occur. The prelude to the 1982 invasion was a group of illegal scrap miners raising an Argentine flag. The British response was half hearted, sending the icebreaker HMS Endurance, as they didn’t want to be seen as too aggressive. The deployment of additional forces will hopefully dissuade any further actions. During the first and second Taiwan strait crisis the deployment of American naval assets and a show of force helped to defuse the situation. Argentine politicians may want war but ordinary soldiers do not want to die for land which does not belong to them & for no noble cause. Once words of further British deployments reach troops preparing morale and resolve will drop. The rapid reaction force of the British Army is the parachute trained 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team. They are held on high readiness and able to operate anywhere around the world. These troops will be transported to the Falklands using cargo aircraft (C-17s). Initial supporting forces will be SF units, Special Forces Support Group, Intelligence, and force sustainment from the Royal Logistics Corps, Royal Signals & Tri Service medical units.


The UK has 2 x Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers. These are the largest ships ever built for the RN. They can operate a number of VTOL aircraft (F-35Bs) and helicopters (Wildcats, Merlins and Apaches). There are currently not enough F-35Bs for the RAF and RN to go around. So even if both carriers are combat ready, likely only 1 will be sent.

During 1982, two carriers HMS Hermes and Invisible were sent. None sunk. Any carrier sent will be a part of a task force containing destroyers, frigates, submarines and support vessels. There are currently 6 Type 45 destroyers and 13 Type 23 frigates. These 13 frigates are due to be replaced by a number of Type 26, Type 31, Type 32 frigates. The situation regarding the Type 32 is confusing. On paper currently it is 8 x Type 26, 5 x Type 31 & up to 5 Type 32s alongside 6 x Type 45. More than 19 major surface combatants are needed. The Royal Navy will be spread too thinly.


There will be numerous other supporting vessels.


Not all UK naval vessels are in the Royal Navy (RN), some are in the Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA). The two Albion class vessels of the RN will be brought to maximum readiness. HMS Albion is currently in reduced readiness & HMS Bulwark is in extended readiness (below reduced readiness). Both can be crewed & brought to operational level relatively quickly. These carry helicopters (two large sized helipads), accommodation for Royal Marine landing craft & a collection of landing craft.


RFA Argus was refitted from its previous hospital ship & aviation training roles to being a littoral strike vessel. It will provide command & aviation platforms for Royal Marine operations. In essence a direct replacement for HMS Ocean. The 3 Bay class Dock Landing ships will play a supporting role to RFA Argus. They carry supplies, troops & vehicles. However, their defensive armament is lacking. The vast majority of it is ‘fitted for but not with’. On paper, the systems such as Phalanx and 30mm DS30M can be fitted quickly but there are not enough to go around. They will need to stay close within the task force.


There is however a lack of sailors in the RFA. This will impact the ability to fully crew all vessels. In case of war, defence contractors may have to be quickly hired on a temporary contract. This will be costly.


RFA Argus & RFA Lyme Bay with a company of RM Commandos have recently been dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean due to the 2023 Israel-Hamas war. Constantly there are operations such as these happening around the world. If war is imminent in the Falklands these will be cancelled.


Logistics will be difficult. The distance between the UK and the Falklands is more than 8,000km. Without logistics an army is nothing. C-17 Globe Masters have a range of circa 2,400 nautical missiles on 1 full tank. However, aerial refuelling can be carried out by Voyager aerial refuelers.


C-17s will take off from Brize Norton, fly to the BOT Ascension Islands (range of circa 3650 nautical missiles) then fly onto RAF Mount Pleasant on East Falklands (range of 3000 nautical miles). Aerial refuelling will be required.


Alongside infantry, L118 Light Guns 105mm towed howitzers, from 7th Parachute Regiment, will be flown over. The L118 was the only British artillery piece used in the 1982 war. It is a light weight, nimble and accurate gun. It is much loved by Ukrainian paratroopers for its effectiveness. During one engagement, in 1982, a battery of L118 fired 12k shells. The modern day L118 is however different from the Falklands era L118 as it has been upgraded with an electronic firing tablet amongst other upgrades. This allows for much faster fire control & coordination.


Light infantry dominated in 1982. There were few armoured vehicles used by the British. Only Fv101 Scorpions & Fv107 Scimitars from Blues and Royals. Both of these vehicles have since been retired (Scimitars this year). The sinking of SS Atlantic Conveyor led to the loss of multiple helicopters severely limiting aerial mobility.


Buenos Aires may be hoping for a relaxation in British resolve to defend however with billions of pounds worth of defensive systems in the Falklands such a reduction will not occur. After Iraq and Afghanistan there will be reduced public support for a war. However, defending the Falklands will be short and this is British soil not foreign land. Moreover, the British policy regarding Ukraine has been highly successful.


Current Defences:


All units are grouped under British Forces South Atlantic Islands (BFSAI). Currently there are about 1,000 troops in total. Most located in RAF Mount Pleasant. This airbase was built soon after the war ended as the need for one was glaring. The islands cannot be occupied again. Last time the islands had to be liberated but now the plan is they will not be conquered. Previously, all Fleet Air Arm & RAF sorties came from RAF Ascension or carriers. RAF Mount Pleasant adds a new dimension. Argentina did station some aircraft at Port Stanley Airport & other airfields. Famously, the SAS performed a highly successful raid on Pebble Island airfield.


Located at RAF Mount Pleasant, are a flight of 4 x Euro-Typhoons, a Voyager tanker, cargo aircraft (C-17s) and a collection of multi-role helicopters. The Euro-Typhoon is a quality piece of it. It is a 4.5 generation multi-role fighter. Highly agile and capable. Not as stealthy as a F-35 however it can carry a host of avionics, munitions and counter-measures.


There is a military port at Mare Harbour to assist with naval operations. It was upgraded in the 2010s. Dotted around the island are other surveillance & communications sites.


The Falklands Islands have their own locally raised unit of volunteers. Known as the Falklands Islands Defence Force. During 1982 the force did not fight. The force then was very different to now. The UK did not really have a plan to defend the island as the idea of them being invaded in the first place was not thought conceivable. The FIDF was not mobilised and its members remained under house arrest during the occupation. However, now it’s different. The FIDF holds a key role in the defence. They will know the islands more than anyone else. Since they are residents born and raised they have high morale and determination to defend their way of living. Training is provided by a couple of Marine instructors & troops on rotation. The force is light infantry and about company size. They have the same light weaponry, armour and uniforms as ordinary British troops. The SA-85A2/3 assault rifle and the L7A2 LMG are the main weapons. They also have machine gun mounted land rovers and quad bikes. This adds key mobility as most of the island is very mountainous and difficult to traverse. A few foxhounds would be useful armour to add to the force. Turning them from light infantry to light mechanised. The VMIK Land Rovers are not armoured so provide no protection from ballistic or ballistic threats. However they are light so can be transported by helicopter, easy to maintain and good manoeuvrability as recon/scout vehicles. Locals were invaluable guides to British landing forces. Terry Peck, police special constable & former FIDF member, spied on Argentine positions, relayed information to the British forces, and he helped guide British paras through the rough terrain.


Regular defence exercises are held by the part-time FIDF. In any invasion they will be expected to fight seamlessly alongside British troops. There are some issues with FIDF. Training is not as good as it is on the British mainland and troops are not at the same level as standard UK reserves. However, they can and will fight. A new firing range is 100% needed for the FIDF.


There are some moderate differences between UK & Argentine troops. UK troops always get a scope however this is not the case for Argentianian troops. British Army sections (tactical level 8 man formations) contain more fire power.


The Argentine Army contains a decent amount of artillery. This is off the NATO standard 155mm. Amongst the TAM VCA the absolute top range will be slightly over 30mm. It is uniquely 41 calibre. Most artillery is either 39 or 52 with 52 calibre having a greater range. For this to have any effect it would have to be mounted to the decks of ships. Same goes for the other 155mm (Mk F3 155mm), 120mm and the collection of rocket artillery. Strapping rocket artillery to amphibious assault ships is quite common as seen in the Zubr class of the Russian navy.


Lobbed-sided battle under the seas:


Simply put the Argentine Navy has no active submarines. They had 2 German designed diesel-electric TR-1700 submarines. Sadly in 2017 ARA San Juan was lost with all hands. The RN, amongst other navies, helped in the search. The other ARA Santa Cruz is in port due to a lack of spare parts. The same goes for Type 209 ARA Salta. It is dangerous to use them. Ideally, submarines should spend at least half a year at sea. However, these remain at port.


Even if they were in service they would have been risky to use. TR-1700 is from the 80s and Type 209 from the 70s. Both models have been upgraded through the years however nothing substantial. They would be loud, meaning easier detection by ASW (Anti-submarine warfare) assets. There are a few ways to detect submarines. There are Magnetic Anomaly Detectors (MAD). Submarines are large metal vessels that create disturbances in the earth’s magnetic fields. This is a passive process which means the submarine cannot tell it is being hunted. The only way to tell if a MAD is being used is if the plane or helicopter carrying the MAD is detected. The other way is via sonar. There is passive sonar where sounds are heard and analysed. Engines make distinctive sounds. The other is via active sonar commonly known as sonar ‘pings’. A pulse of sound is emitted. It reflects a submarine and this confirms its presence and location. Active sonar can give away a submarine whilst passive cannot. The main RN ASW frigate is the Type 23 soon to be Type 26. These have towed sonar arrays. On most Type 23s and all future Type 26s is the Sonar 2087. Details are classified however it is a highly effective system. RN Merlin and Wildcat helicopters can carry 4 and two Stingray Anti-submarine torpedoes respectively. The Merlin can use dipping sonars to help find submarines. RAF P-8A Poseidon aircraft can drop sonar buoys. Depth charges can also be mounted on said helicopters. The threat of engagement vastly outweighs the benefits. None of the two submarines had submarine-launched cruise missiles nor modern guided torpedoes.


The nuclear powered submarines of the Silent Service would be a menace. These are the nuclear armed Vanguard class (x4) alongside the attack Astute (currently 5 will be 7) and 1 singular Trafalgar class. Which will be replaced soon once another Astute has finished being built in Scotland. All submarines are armed with the very modern Spearfish torpedo. 50 km+ range. It has multiple guidance techniques either sonar or fibre optic wire. They have been recently. Their speed is also greater than any current Argentine ship. The last submarine kill of a naval ship was the sinking of ARA General Belgrano by HMS Conqueror. The captain at the time did not trust the Tigerfish torpedo (the predecessor) so instead used WWII era unguided torpedoes. Argentina lacks dedicated ASW assets. There are no modern hard or soft kill systems. These RN vessels are very hard for even the Amercians to detect. If they invade, Argentina will not know where these submarines are or how many there are. Submarine routes are held in very high secrecy.


Newly sourced P-3C patrol aircraft can be used to hunt for British submarines. The avionics & sonar is potent but not the best. Submarines crews will need to be aware it will not be a guaranteed smooth ride. EuroTyphoons with long range meteor air to air missiles will need to keep them at bay.



Surface combat:


The biggest threats to Argentine landings will be the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) & Harpoon AShM (Anti-ship missiles). The most infamous weapon of 1982 was the French made Exocet AShM. It sank multiple Royal Navy ships, HMS Sheffield & HMS Glamorgan. The auxiliary ship SS Atlantic Conveyor, which was carrying Task Force supplies and most of the helicopters, was sunk as well. AShM are threats to all ships regardless. The Black Sea Fleet flagship Cruiser Moskva (Moscow) was sunk by two domestic Ukrainian Neptune AShM on 13th April 2022. The harpoon is a tried and tested weapon with its most recent kill being a Russian multi-role craft Vasiliy Bekh which was armed with a Tor-M2 AD system (ad hoc addition to the flight deck). The harpoon is being removed from RN vessels being replaced by the all round better more modern NSM. However, RAF P-8 maritime patrol aircraft can still fire Harpoons.


Apart from the short range Sea Skua helicopter fired missile, the UK did not fire any long range anti-ship weapon systems during the 1982 Falklands war. AShm will be a threat the Argentines have not encountered before.


The Argentine navy is woefully underequipped. They would have to send every vessel available and civilian ships to just land some troops on the Falklands.


Originally there were Almirante Brown-class frigates. However, now only 3 are active. There are the most capable surface combatants the Argentines have. They carry Exocets, still a major threat. Currently, the only Falklands naval vessel is a River class patrol ship. It is extremely vulnerable and will likely be sunk by an Exocet. The river class patrol ship carries no SAMs or AShM which is a waste. Its weight is capable of carrying them. Its armament is a DS30M 30mm Small Calibre Gun. These frigates also carry Aspide SAMs. 24 total in a box launcher. The Aspide is vulnerable to drones as shown by a recent Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian battery. The drone vulnerability is a problem for any air defence system built before drones became a major part of warfare. The Aspide will struggle to intercept a NSM. Frigates carry torpedoes however due to Typhoon air cover it is extremely risky to use them even against a River class OPV. Thr Almirante Brown class does have a good collection of artillery for its size.


Corvettes of the Espora & Drummond class have Exocets however no meaningful air defence. Their purpose would be hit & run. However, they are large, relatively slow vessels. This tactic is better suited to small missile craft boats as seen in Finland, Taiwan & the PLAN. The Dardo 40mm CIWS of the Espora will not be able to work out a firing solution for the NSM. Another issue to contemplate is the reliability of the weapon systems. Argentina has relaxed weapons testing & a lack of spare parts. It is questionable how many of these systems would work under wartime conditions. Patrol vessels are patrol vessels. Not much to discuss. Unsuited to conventional naval warfare. Major threat to them would be Wildcat helicopters armed with SeaVenom AShM (successor to Sea Skua). However, there are some teething issues with the system. There are two Intrepida class fast missile boats armed with Exocets. Would again be a threat. However, the exocet is an old system. There are more modern variants but Buenos Aires lacks them.


The amphibious lift is in shambles. ARA Hercules (a modified Type-42) is non-operational & ARA Bahia San Blas (modified civilian ship) is in a better shape but not used often. Both lack suitable air defence & CIWS. ARA Bahia San Blas is basically defenceless. The modification of the ARA Hercules was quite drastic. It has a new hangar, removal of the Sea Dart air defence & Exocets, additional living quarters for marines. The radars & avionics are basically the same. Both ships, if they are working, must be part of a task force. This will mean that there will be 1-2 main Argentine naval groupings. Making it easier to seek & destroy them. Ideally, you do not want to clump together your main assets but Buenos Aires has no choice. If the RN is operating in the area & EuroTyphoons are still flying the probability of troops landing is low. However, taking out the F-16s is vital. F-16s should be targeted initially over the troop formations. It will take time for the troops to make the ocean journey.


The new P-3C can carry Harpoon anti-ship missiles. These have been positively deployed by the Ukrainian Navy against the Black Sea Fleet. It is unknown if Argentina will source these. Their budget is tight & the UK will push the US against doing so. However, if they are sourced they will be a concern. Current River-class patrol boats will not be able to operate outside the protective ring of the SkySabre ground based air defence fire group. The threat depends on the variant. However, due to UK-US relations the pentagon will give defence relation information/advice to the UK to help protect against it. The RN used to operate the Harpoon the RAF still does.


Air Defence:


In 1982 there was no air defence on the islands. Now, there is a modern Sea-ceptor fire group. The fire group consists of a launcher (Man HX77 truck with 8 X CAMM missile), a Swedish Saab Giraffe radar, command vehicles and a number of supporting units.

To increase survivability these elements operate spaced apart so decrease the likelihood of multiple unit losses. These are operated under 16th Royal Artillery. Recently 16th Royal Artillery practised to hide and camouflage a battery whilst 32 Royal Artillery hunted with UAVs. The specific range is classified however it is 25km+. CAMM missiles are also on Type 23 Frigates and soon to be Type 45 destroyers under the Sea-Ceptor name. These replaced the Sea Wolf regarding the Type 23s. For the Type 45s the CAMM will replace the Aster-15s whilst keeping the longer range Aster-30s. The Sea Wolf & the Seacat were both used during the Falklands war. Both suffered from major problems. Sea-Wolf was generally better out of the two. Both have a limited range and offer point not area defence. The Seacat suffered from reliability issues. The Exocet has a transonic speed & is sea skimming (very low flight altitude). Both made it harder to intercept. The Sea Wolf & Seacat both had better luck against aircraft. After the war CIWS were brought such as 30mm Goalkeeper (no longer in service) & the 20mm Phalanx still in service. Other issues faced by the Royal Navy such as cannon fire & iron bombs will not be an issue anymore due to the improved air defence.


In case of war, rapid reaction forces will be equipped with Starstreak & Marlet SHORAD. Capable against drones, helicopters and low flying aircraft. Both systems have had great combat experience in Ukraine. The Marlet is especially well liked in the C-UAV role. These missiles can be fired from a single shoulder launcher, a triple tripod launcher or via the Stormer HVM (High Velocity Missile) vehicle. Both missiles require good operator skill but British troops are well trained & professional. The Stormer HVM has been able to resist Russian Lancet drone strikes on multiple occasions.


On the other hand, Argentine ground based air defence is extremely lacking. They only have Swedish RBS-70 NG laser guided missiles which are useful against drones, helicopters & low flying aircraft. Ukrainian troops have used them well including the downing of a potent Ka-52 attack helicopter. Against modern cruise missiles the chance of interception is low. Options to the UK would be submarine launched Tomahawks and/or RAF Storm Shadows (SCALP-EG). Both tried & tested systems. Both are subsonic and fly low, however the Storm Shadow is designed to be stealthy. Its design incorporates radar reducing features & radar absorbing paint. The vast majority of the time the Storm Shadow can penetrate Russian air defence. In 1982 no Argentine soil was touched. If another war breaks out Whitehall may not be so reliant. All air bases, naval bases, command posts, barracks, ammo depots, defence industry & much more would be at risk. This would cripple Argentina.


Argentina does have ground based AAA ranging from 20mm to 40mm. Oerlikon (20mm), GDF (35mm) and the classic Bofors 40mm. Useful against drones however these are unguided and lack range. Standoff weapons can be used to engage them. Typhoons with Brimstone or Wildcats with Marlet.


Argentina lacks any cruise or dedicated land attack missiles currely. It is plausible you could modify the Exocet to be used as a land attack. To strike key installations such as RAF Mount Pleasant. However, it would require extensive modification to the targeting and navigation system. Ukraine has been trying to tinker with their famous neptune anti-ship missile. Previously mentioned was the ability of the P-3C to be equipped with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The F-16 can be equipped with many munitions of its own. This includes the AGM-158 JASSM (cruise missile) & the AGM-154 Joint Standoff weapon (glide bomb). The concern would be SkySabre air defence sustainment levels. Interceptor missiles are produced & stored in the UK. In the worst case scenario Falkland defenders would have run out of air defence missiles & be at the mercy of these long range strikes. Since aviation sorties cannot be predicted like amphibious invasions it will be harder to position naval assets in place in time or have retaliatory weapons ready. The only way to permanently remove the cruise missile & glide bomb threat would be to neutralise the air bases.


Air-air combat is now a realistic possibility. Before the EuroTyhpoons would have no issues taking out the Sky Hawks however 4 x EuroTyhpoons vs 24 F-16s is a immensely tough match regardless of the superior skill of RAF pilots. Outcomes will depend on what missiles the F-16s receive. The RAF Meteor air to air missile is superior in range & superiority than the F-16 standard AIM-120. The EuroTyhpoons do have a window where they can engage before being engaged. Enough losses will need to be inflicted in this window to force the F-16s to escape. If the window closes to where Argentine pilots can lock on with their AIM-120s then it will be a concern. Trying to dodge & evade so many radar guided missiles will be hard. Vital to prevent this will be long range surveillance & a rapid sortie time. Getting airborne ASAP is essential for survival. Rio Grande air base will be the most probable base of operations for the F-16s. The replacement for the AIM-120 the AIM-260 will not be for the F-16. For shorter range engagement the F-16s have AIM-9s & the Typhoons AIM-132 (ASRAAMs). Depends on the AIM-9 variant however AIM-132 is generally better. Long range the EuroTyphoon is superior however if the F-16s are able to evade & press the attack then the risk of aerial losses are very high. Most of the aerial engagements during the 1982 war were close range. RN Harriers used the AIM-9L.


If SkySabre sites are still active & EuroTyphoons can perform Combat Air Patrols (CAP) then the other aircraft of the Argentine Air Force such as the Pampa will not be used. Bell 412 helicopters have the theoretical range to make the journey. Making it back, with a payload & adverse weather, is likely unfeasible. There are only six in service. Flying low & trying to avoid radar could be tried, may work against Soviet based systems as seen in Ukraine, unlikely to work out against the Saab GAMB radar. In a theoretical scenario where Argentina harpoons, cruise missiles & glide bombs. During high intensity combat where SkySabre & the 4 x EuroTyphoons are trying to engage multi aerial threats it is likely missiles will be exhausted so there could be an attempt to sneak the Bell 412s through this way. To combat there should be MANPAD teams & Stormer HVM units to quickly respond. Combine these air defence units with light/motorised infantry to form ad hoc anti-sabotage/insertion units. RAF Regiment must increase their guard of RAF Mount Pleasant in any event of tension flare ups.


No current Argentine operational/strategic UAVs have the range to reach the Falklands. They could be deployed from floating barrages however this has not been developed. Moreover, the recovery would be complex. However Argentina, likely influenced by Ukrainian operations, is procuring a number of small UAVs for tactical level operations. These could be easily launched from naval vessels for ISR operations. Theoretical operations would be damage assessment from F-16 strikes. Key to countering this would be C-UAV & fake/misleading damage assessment. The British Armed Forces possess a number of systems from the low level SmartShooter SMASH for infantry to RAF ORCUS EW platforms to protect HVTs.


To Argentina’s annoyance Bolivia is looking to procure Iranian drones. Iran has a potent & sizable UAV defence industry. One of the largest in the world. Iranian Shahed-131/136 OWA-UAVs & Mohajer-6 ground attack UAVs have been used against Ukraine. It is unknown what models Bolivia will buy. This will attract attention & concern from the west. Iran is under strict sanctions especially their defence industry. Shahid-131/136 range is unknown. The 136 model has a longer range. Argentina may want to procure a drone similar to target the Falklands. When Argentina joins BRICS Iran is also joining. Iran is known to supply both sides of conflicts. Iran sold military equipment to both Ukraine & Russia. It will not be implausible for them to sell to Bolivia & Argentina. They are not that hard to intercept however the issue is missile depletion. Due to the distance from the UK to the Falklands no SkySabre missiles can be used to intercept them. However, any missile which is used successfully is not a ‘waste’. Ukraine’s number 1 weapon against them is the cost effective Gepard SPAAG. The British Army currently does not have a SPAAG which is a concern. Stormer HMV only has StarStreak/Martlet guided missiles. This means they are vulnerable to kamikaze drones. However, recently the UK is sending to Ukraine C-UAV Terrahawk Paladin systems based on a Mk44 30mm auto-gun. A number should be stationed in the Falklands. They can be mounted on trucks.

Integrating all forms of air defence is important.


Argentina is procuring from Israel Hero-120 (range 60km) & Hero-30 (range 30km). Israel kamikaze drones were used highly effectively against Armenian targets. These could be launched from modified Argentine missile boats. Again, another concern which needs to be identified.


Argentina does have an aerial refuelling capability however due to Meteor long range missiles the risk of performing such missions are very high. The KC-130 tankers lack any substantial defence.


Beach landings:


Military planning must include & analyse all scenarios regardless. There is no room for ‘cope’ in defence analysis. When doing amphibious landings there is a trade off due to weight. Either more armour & heavier equipment but less troops or more troops but they are lightly equipped. Without a civilian lift likely only a battalion can be sent at once. The previous air campaign must be a success for the amphibious landings to occur. Operation Sea Lion (proposed Axis invasion of the UK mainland in WWII) did not occur as the RAF won the battle of Britain. The PLA regarding Taiwan can perform waves. Starting with recon then building up to armoured divisions. With Argentina it's just not possible. There will be one singular main wave. On the balance of probabilities the most likely will be a full VBTP-MR fleet. Last time Assault Amphibious Vehicle (AAV) was used. They were withdrawn before ground battles commenced. The AAV contains many faults, the armour is relatively weak, it has a poor silhouette & dreadful mine protection. Many losses were seen in the 2003 Battle of Al Faw (Iraq). The VBTP is amphibious & relatively light below 20 tons. This is likely the reason why a wheeled vehicle was chosen to replace the tracked M113 & VCTP. Modern vehicles, especially tracked, are becoming drastically more heavy. British Army Ajax & Heer Lynx is circa 40 tons (depends on the variant). Even the wheeled Boxer in full combat load is >35 tons. The direct successor to the M113, the Bradley is slightly below 30 tons in its basic form (no added armour or sights). At a max the Argentinans can land at two separate sites at the same time. This would be a stretch. As a result, British defenders can concentrate their defence. As a rule of thumb for offensive operations you need a 2:1 advantage. With a singular lift the ratio will be close to 1:1. The situation regarding the F-16s will be the biggest single factor in the success of the landings. F-16s, albeit not designed for it, can provide ground attack support. The average British troops are better trained & equipped than their Argentine counterparts. This is from body armour to weapon systems scopes. Average Argentine troops do not have thermals or scopes so most fighting will be during the day. However, the Argentine SOF can perform night attacks. The VCTP will be resistant to small arms & support company (fire support) 50 cals. However, support company Javelins & 81mm L16 mortars will be sufficient as long as there is adequate munition supplies. At a closer range infantry section NLAWs can be used. However, it will be risky when facing the IFV variant. The M4 Carl Gustav would be sufficient. The advantage of the M4 recoilless rifle over the NLAW & other disposable systems is that it is reloadable, the rounds are relatively light & are shared amongst the platoon. The Matador anti-structure munition is not designed to counter armoured vehicles, it is to punch through fortifications. But, Ukrainian forces have used them against BTR APCs with relative success. At a push they may work against Argentine armoured vehicles There are different types of vehicle ‘skills’.


  • Catastrophic kill = total destruction,

  • Mobility kill = movement impaired/not possible due to engine or wheel damage,

  • Mission kill = vehicle is intact but cannot continue due to armament, optic, electrical damage etc


The StarStreak has a little known feature that the tungsten darts have a ground attack secondary feature. Never been used in combat. Likely they would penetrate a VBTP (at least the sides).


There are not many roads in the Falklands so securing these are key. The numerous mountain tops in East & West Falklands provide good situational judgement & firing locations for mortar & artillery units. These will be primary targets for Argentine landing forces.


Argentine landing forces must be kept away from RAF Mount Pleasant. This is paramount.


Lion Research Co future recommendations:

  • Increase number of SkySabre interceptors in the Falklands

  • Ideally in the future change the guard ship from a Block II River Patrol Ship to a Type 31/32 frigate

  • Increase C-UAV EW & signal intelligence

  • Increase the fortification level of munition storages (to prevent precision strikes from removing key defence capabilities)

  • Modify the River-class patrol boats. Harpoon missiles which are being retired from Type 23 frigates & Type 45 destroyers should be placed on the helicopter deck of certain patrol boats. Taiwan does this with coast guard vessels (Hsuing Feng series AShM). Rarely are helicopters (Merlins/Wildcats) embarked on deployments. The Russian Black Sea Fleets routinely place Tor air defence on the helicopter decks of Project 22160 patrol boats. The 30mm could be replaced by a BAE 40mm or 57mm. BAE 3P smart rounds can be used on the 40mm & 57mm naval guns. BAE states they can be used as part of anti-ship missiles & UAV air defence. Adding a small VLS block could be explored. The displacement of the ship allows for these added features. Removal of the helicopter deck equipment, crane & Pacific Rib 24 boats would save weight. The River-class patrol boat is a great base vehicle however its full potential is not being used.

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